A disagreement-weighted Bayesian index of communicated stance, estimated from 5,718 CBDC sentences in BIS central bankers' speeches, 2015 to 2025.
Stance and attention are reported separately and never combined. A central bank that says nothing is silent, not neutral, so it is absent from these means rather than counted as zero. Attention peaked in 2023; stance kept climbing after it.
Mean CSI across institutions with data, with the interquartile range
CBDC sentences per 1,000 sentences spoken, mean across institutions
The quadrant no single tone score can isolate is the lower right: institutions that discuss CBDC at length and remain sceptical. Point area is proportional to the number of CBDC sentences behind each estimate.
Each series is a posterior path with its 90% credible band. Solid points are years with CBDC discourse; hollow points are years the institution said nothing, where the estimate is propagated by the random walk and the band widens to say so.
Cell means of the three scored dimensions, standardised across the corpus
This index measures the position a central bank communicates toward CBDC, not the affective tone of its language. The two are related but they are not the same construct, and the corpus lets us say by how much.
Pairwise correlation on the favourability axis, all 5,718 sentences
The two released encoders agree with each other far more closely than either agrees with an independent reading of the same sentences. They share a base model and overlapping training data, so this is method variance rather than evidence that either has captured the construct.
Mean of (tone minus position), both standardised, by rubric risk salience
Risk-dominated sentences read markedly colder than the position they actually express. The effect is strongly signed but small in aggregate, explaining under three per cent of the variance in the gap.
Favourable position, negative affective tone, high risk salience
Rubric urgency inside each class of the released stance model
Only observed cells are listed. Click a column heading to sort. Sentiment is the mean CBDC-Sentiment valence for that bank-year on its natural scale; tone is the same quantity standardised. They are one measurement on two scales, not two pieces of evidence, and neither enters the index.
| Institution | Country | Year | CSI | 90% interval | Sentiment | Tone | Gap | Salience | Sentences | Orientation |
|---|
The whole index is here. Set the filters, choose the columns you need, and take it as CSV. Nothing is sent anywhere: the file is assembled in your browser from the data already on this page.
The index is free to use with attribution. The underlying speeches are the property of the Bank for International Settlements and the issuing central banks and are not redistributed here; the scored corpus carries a source URL for every sentence, so any score can be traced back.
Cite asThe index is not an average of classifier labels. Sentence scores are treated as noisy indicators of an unobserved stance, and the variance of each indicator grows with how far the scoring engines disagree about it.
Posterior mean with 94% highest-density interval. Weights are estimated, not assigned.
Two independent passes of the rubric over a 322-unit stratified sample